A recent working paper by economists Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh explores the economic implications of the transition to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The paper analyzes the impact of technological progress on output and wages, considering the possibility of full automation and its effects on the labor market. The authors discuss the race between automation and capital accumulation, wage dynamics, and the potential for productivity gains.
Key points from the paper include:
– AGI development may lead to the automation of all tasks, potentially impacting wages and human work.
– The race between automation and capital accumulation could determine the future of work, with implications for wage dynamics.
– Broad-based gains in productivity may result from the automation of complex tasks, but bottlenecks to growth could exacerbate wage declines.
– The distribution of tasks in complexity space plays a crucial role in economic outcomes, with both unbounded and bounded distributions considered.
Overall, the research by Korinek and Suh provides valuable insights into the economic consequences of AGI development, offering a framework for understanding the potential effects on output, wages, and human welfare.
